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What is the risk for Ukraine?
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MOUNTAINEER'S STORY
On April 26, 2003, at the age of 27, climber and mountaineer Aron Ralston found himself in an extremely difficult situation. The climber spent 5 days and 7 hours in one of the canyons with his right hand stuck under a boulder. A few days later, when he ran out of food and water, Ralston faced the question: to live or to die.
The climber found a way out: he cut off his arm (see diagram in the image) and, after coping with traumatic shock and the risk of severe blood loss, managed to walk for miles under the scorching sun until he came across some hikers who managed to call a rescue helicopter.
AND WE ARE STUCK IN A RUSSIAN TRAP
This shocking story comes to mind when I think of the situation Ukraine finds itself in....
We are trapped in a Russian bloodthirsty war that has dragged on for an uncertain period of time, and in the absence of real help from our democratic allies, we are faced with a choice: either cut off part of the country to save the state (this is the essence of the "Rasmussen Proposal") or condemn Ukraine to a fatal catastrophe.
The situation when the war has practically turned into a positional war, military aid is decreasing rather than increasing, and the Russian Federation is shifting its economy to a military basis and forming an arms hub in Asia requires decisive action on the part of Ukraine and its partners. The Rasmussen proposal under consideration is one such step.
WHAT DOES RASMUSSEN'S PROPOSAL GIVE UKRAINE?
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen suggested that Ukraine join the alliance, but that Article 5 of the Washington Treaty would not apply to territories occupied by Russia.
Militarily: no missiles would be fired at Ukrainian cities, and Ukraine would be able to increase its economic development, including weapons production and storage. In addition, Ukraine will have access to modern NATO weapons and intelligence.
Strategically: Russia will no longer be able to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO by dragging out the war indefinitely, the likelihood of a second conflict is reduced, and Ukrainian forces become part of NATO and part of the European security system.
WHAT IS AT RISK FOR UKRAINE
This option also entails serious risks: Russia could gather its forces and attack either on the eve of Ukraine's accession to NATO or after its accession, since NATO's reaction to an invasion cannot be guaranteed in advance.
The second serious threat is the FACTUAL LOSS of the OCCUPIED territories, because during the years of political settlement there will be nothing Ukrainian left on these territories, these territories will be populated by Russian and Russian minorities, and people on both sides of the watershed will hate each other. - Reunification can be forgotten.
The problem is further complicated by the fact that decisions have to be made rather quickly, while the situation is still under control.
Based on the analysis of the Collective Intelligence of the Society UKRAINE AFTER VICTORY (point 2 UKRAINE'S RISKS in section 3.10.2.4 ATTRACTION TO NATO WITH CHANGE ARTICLE 5).
Two other important sections of the topic are not included in this publication:
